Everything leads here.
From a coaching change to losing streaks to winning streaks to injuries to new additions to old departures, it’s been a long season in Seattle Sounders land. And all the lines on the map lead right here. The final game of the season.
The Sounders have never missed the MLS Cup Playoffs in seven tries, but they’ve left it late over the last two years. In 2015, a poor result at home against RSL on the final day of the season could’ve spelled the end of that streak. Instead, Seattle won 3-1 with two goals inside the first 10 minutes for the first time in franchise history. It was a nice way to ease nerves that could’ve become significantly more frayed on such a potentially stressful Decision Day.
The more things change, the more they stay the same. Yet again, the Sounders probably need a result against RSL on the final day of the season to progress into the postseason. And they certainly need a result to feel confident about those chances.
Last year, the Sounders endured a dire summer before launching off on a massive unbeaten streak that ran them through the final two months of the season. They more or less followed the same formula this year. Since playmaker Nicolas Lodeiro got his first game on July 31, the Sounders are 7-2-4 in their last 13 to jump a once seemingly insurmountable playoff gap.
In fact, the team’s 2-1 loss to FC Dallas on Oct. 16 - one FCD needed two goals in the final 11 minutes to secure - was its first in the months of September and October since 2014. Say whatever you want about Seattle’s early-season performances over the past two seasons, but it gets things done when the oven is hottest.
In one sense the playoff race from Seattle’s perspective isn’t at all complicated. Win and you’re in with the No. 4 seed, no questions asked. But the prospect of even a draw leaves the door open for the book on the Sounders’ season to close emphatically on Sunday.
While the battle rages at CenturyLink Field, two other equally important matches take place in other corners of the continent. A Seattle draw combined with a Portland win at Vancouver and a Sporting KC win at home against San Jose means curtains. Strangely enough, a loss doesn’t leave Seattle in much more dire straits. By virtue of Seattle’s one-point lead over the No. 6 and No. 7 spots, it has an iota of wiggle room. Still, the Sounders can put all those scenarios to rest - there are more than 20 of them - with a win.
While Seattle’s been feverishly climbing the ladder the last two months just to get to this point, meanwhile, RSL’s been knocking out rungs on its way down.
RSL was once in firm, unassailable playoff positioning. On Aug. 26, the team was bouncing off a 2-1 win over Supporters’ Shield-leading Colorado and clinching a postseason berth seemed assured. Six games later and RSL hasn’t won since that day, eschewing multiple chances to clinch a playoff berth over the last several weeks with a single win they haven’t been able to find.
Entering the final game of the season in one of the most hostile road environments in North America, RSL is 0-3-3 in its last six and trailing an awful lot of smoke into town.
Part of the problem from RSL’s perspective has been goals. They’ve simply blinked off. Since a 3-3 draw against the LA Galaxy on Sept. 7, RSL’s scored a meager one goal in its last five games. In fact, its only two points in the last six weeks came off scoreless draws. Until attacking line-leaders like Yura Movsisyan, Javier Morales and Burrito Martinez find their groove again, RSL will continue to struggle in the final third.
The Sounders haven’t exactly been pounding in goals left and right lately, but they’ve found timely ones. They’ve had eight goals in their last five games down the stretch, and they’ll be heartened by a relatively clean bill of health and the almost incredibly consistent form of the two most important cogs of the attack: Lodeiro and rookie striker Jordan Morris, who’s on 12 goals into the final regular season game of the year.
But the biggest boost to the team’s chances isn’t up top. It’s in the return of Osvaldo Alonso.
Alonso missed the FC Dallas loss with the carryover one-game suspension from a red card he picked up in the scoreless draw against Houston four days earlier. The Sounders simply aren’t the same team without Alonso, the genesis of most every meaningful foray forward and a stunningly calm presence between the attack and defense. The Sounders are 10-22-6 all-time without Alonso in the lineup, a winning percentage of just 26.3. When he plays it jumps to 49.8 percent.
Alonso will almost assuredly to pair with Cristian Roldan in the middle to bring back together the partnership that helped get the Sounders to the doorstep of the postseason in the first place.
The Sounders very likely be without the injured Andreas Ivanschitz for this game. The question is whether they’ll have Brad Evans, Nelson Valdez or Oalex Anderson, all of whom are dealing with injury questions of their own. But the integrity of the team’s spine is intact, and interim coach Brian Schmetzer has been dealing with width woes all year. That won’t come as a surprise this week.
The Sounders have so far had two cracks at putting themselves in the playoffs. Wins against either Houston or FC Dallas would’ve done it, but they drew the first and lost the second. They get their final chance to win and assure themselves of an eighth playoff appearance in eight years in MLS. Whether they get that win or not, Decision Day will be one heck of a ride either way.
