The MLS season is a long runway of takeoffs and landings in form. Things change so much from one game to the next - let alone one month to the next - that taking past results at this time of year and extrapolating from them any sort of intellectual nuance can be difficult.
So does it matter that the Colorado Rapids have had the Sounders’ number this year? Yes and no. But mostly no.
When the Rapids and Sounders clash for the first time on Tuesday at CenturyLink Field in the first leg of their Western Conference Championship series, they’re dragging incomplete history. The Rapids beat the Sounders in their only two meetings this year, the first a 3-1 drubbing in Commerce City, Colo. on April 23, and again in a 1-0 Sounders loss in Seattle on May 21.
There were a few notable things to extract from those two battles, notably the latter of the two. For one, the Rapids played the second of them without talisman Shkelzen Gashi, something they’re likely to have to do again on Tuesday. Gashi finished the Rapids’ Western Conference Semifinal series against the LA Galaxy on crutches, and Rapids coach Pablo Mastroeni said earlier this week his status for Tuesday is doubtful with a bum ankle.
As a result, the Rapids are likely to play much as they did in that matchup. They sat deeper with Micheal Azira and Sam Cronin stymying attacks through the middle and the team as a unit largely lumping over-the-top balls to Kevin Doyle and a pushed-up Jermaine Jones. It worked.
That Rapids team also earned a road shutout with Zac MacMath between the pipes, something they’ll have to rely on again. Midseason capture Tim Howard was ruled out for the season with an injury he suffered on national team duty last week, pushing MacMath back into a regular starting role for the first time in nearly four months.
The Rapids will be largely unchanged since that time. They still rely on a swarming, protective defensive effort that asks all 10 outfield players to switch into a defensive mindset at a moment’s notice. Watch the Rapids defend with numbers on Tuesday and you’ll see how much Mastroeni drills defensive fortitude. Even forwards are defenders.
The Rapids’ defense is verging on historic numbers, and most of it is simply in angles and smart play. The Rapids aren’t particularly notable statistically in key metrics like tackles per game (16th) or interceptions per game (8th), but they cut off avenues to goal like few other teams. Teams are averaging just 12.3 shots per game on Colorado this year, the fifth-lowest total in the league. To do that while averaging less than 50 percent possession illustrates the total defense Mastroeni preaches.
Indeed, Colorado’s won eight games by 1-0 margins and scored just six more regular season goals than they did in 2015. Combined with a defense that surrendered 11 fewer than it did a year ago, the Rapids went from last in the Western Conference to second in 12 months. So goes MLS.
The Rapids have largely got it done behind one of the most unlikely emergent stars in the league.
When he entered the league, Axel Sjoberg was notable primarily for one reason: his size. Anyone who watched the 6-foot-7 Sjobgerg (prounced SHOE-berg) lope up to the dais on draft day in 2015 remembers how he towered over the podium while thanking his family and coaches. After a standout career at Marquette, questions abounded as to whether Sjoberg’s size would leave him athletically vulnerable in such a fast attacking league.
Instead, Sjoberg’s become the one constant on maybe the most effective back line in the league. Whether starting next to Bobby Burling or, most recently, Jared Watts, Sjoberg’s ability to play along the ground as well as control aerial battles has cast him as not just one of the league’s top emergent center backs, but as one of its top center backs period. Getting over him or around him is no simple task.
But the change in the Sounders since the last time these two teams played is notable. So notable, in fact, that one wonders if the Rapids really understand what they’re in for.
When these teams last met in May, then-coach Sigi Schmid was still deep in his 4-3-3 experiment, and Aaron Kovar started wide right. Clint Dempsey, still healthy then, played in the hole underneath Jordan Morris, while Brad Evans and Zach Scott paired in defense.
Notably, no Nicolas Lodeiro.
Lodeiro of course galvanized this team with his setup play, but so too has Brian Schmetzer with his pragmatic switch to a much more coherent 4-2-3-1. That day in May, three of the Sounders’ top five passers were defenders, including Evans, who nearly matched Osvaldo Alonso with a whopping 99 passes. That’s not necessarily what you want to see, especially when your creator in Dempsey isn’t so natural in that role. As a result, the Sounders didn’t score and left themselves open to a Sjoberg goal to decide the match.
The likelihood of that happening again is slim.
In those days, it’s easy to forget Alonso was saddled with more attacking duties than at any point in his career. Lacking a true creative impetus, Alonso was often asked to get forward and buttress the flow in the attacking half. It did help prod the Sounders forward, but it also created gaps where Alonso would’ve been. That era ended the minute Lodeiro stepped onto the field.
It’s tough to use past battles as a litmus, and it’ll be even tougher for the Rapids to reconcile the team they see on Tuesday with the one they faced in May. Whether that ultimately spurs the Sounders onto their first win over the Rapids this year, we’ll have to wait and see.
